Stock Markets and the Energy question

The wheat fields are ripe for harvesting. A gentle wind blows. The vast sky above carried little patches of white cloud. I am riding my old Philips bicycle, with the Missus riding pillion and a much younger Chathu seated on the handle bar. A transistor radio playing Hindi songs from the sixties is held close to my ears. The village Moneylender, the Thakur landowner and the sharecroppers are not shown in this frame. Nor are suicides due to crop failure, floods, drowning incidents in the river or violent village panchayat squabbles. But there is no pollution, no smoke, no sulphur dioxide emissions, no fossil fuels, no damage to ozone layer; no carbon footprints… all’s well with life yonder.
Somehow thing were not to be so. When I took my six-year-old Zen for Pollution check, the guy at the petrol pump said that the car needs service and he had fudged figures to show compliance. I told him that that was unnecessary. He said it would still cost me a Pooora Painthalees Rupaiyah (whole of Rs 45) to give a non-compliance certificate as for a certificate showing compliance. He thought he was doing me a good turn but didn’t expect to be ticked off for certifying the car fit. Haven’t you come for a pollution compliance certificate? Don’t you want your money’s worth? I felt foolish as I started the car. In Delhi everybody is looking for money’s worth (Paisa Vasool), I thought and my car guzzles too much petrol. Now Petrol costs me Rs 2000 a month for a small distance of 9 Kms to Office and back. The Govt reimburses me a princely sum of Rs 800 every month. Many colleagues have an Office car and driver to commute. (Including the Missus). But yours truly made his life choices long back based on the commandment Thou shalt not be a pain in the ass of the system…
I am hoping for miracles. In two years I am hoping that the entire energy model will take a different trajectory. Indians should have been at the forefront of the new energy model- Instead of waiting for Americans to attack Iraq to directly or indirectly to control the largest chunk of global oil resources - And still be saddled with highest global prices!! I suppose the oil companies in question must be making huge campaign contributions…
I foresee a disaggregated model wherein consumers turn prosumers. Read about the feed-in model of Germany. Homes generate electricity through Solar panels, wind mills etc and feed the grid. The Energy merchants are obliged to buy home-generated electricity at a rate significantly higher than what is charged to the consumers. Germany, located in Europe with little sunshine has implemented this model, thus greatly subsidizing renewable energy- There is a steep rise in the price of Solar panels globally as a result of demand from Germany & Scandinavian countries. Why can’t dear old Hindustan with large tracts of land blessed with abundant sunshine have policies of feed –in, lower taxes on Hybrids, free parking for pollution-free cars, seamless integration and comfortable public transport ?
I am not particularly known for astrology, tarot card reading, palm reading and other claptrap. Many years ago I had predicted that a certain politician from the South, wearing dark glasses would join hands with the very party which withdrew support to the Govt of the day on the plea that the wearer of dark glasses was considered complicit in a political assassination. Maybe I predicted this in the comfort of my drawing room, sipping vodka with only the disinterested Missus listening in- Who in any case doesn’t doesn’t give credence to rambling predictions mid-sip of vodka.
Here is one more prediction. The nuclear deal will be a laughing matter ten years from now. We would be clutching our stomachs and wondering how it could cost support to the Govt. How reams and reams of newsprint were expended on it. The deal is one of the many things that need to be done for the medium term. Repeat – One of the many things. Nothing will collapse if it isn’t done (except the Govt maybe…). It is amusing to watch big guys staking everything, their reputation, political standing, and loyalties on such a thing. Considering that this prediction is not being made in the comfort of my drawing room with none listening in, I shall find some reasonable excuse if this prediction turns out to be dud one. Before this blog turns political and I get cashiered under a certain clause in the Central Service Conduct Rules, let me turn attention to things more serious.
Yeah, it is the melt down in stock markets. Which is also linked to the global energy question. The price per barrel of crude goes up because of speculation on an imminent attack on a country (starting with I also by a country starting with I- This blog is full of clues: like a secret seven mystery by Enid Blyton) goes up, which in turn, drives futures market on oil. So prices of oil go up, inflation is up- markets are down. Isn’t it ridiculous? Whole lot of world leaders in shiny suits cannot fix this problem? Meanwhile other shiny suits masquerading as Fund Managers and Investment Bankers are pulling out money from India. For the last several years we hadn’t thought of alternatives to fossil fuel since the global big Daddies didn’t think it fit to change anything. In their blessed land, gasoline is cheaper than beer. So the rest of the herd followed them into the Valley of no return.
Many friends believe I am a shrewd investor. For someone with an unmentionably tiny net worth, that is quite a reputation. My stock picking has always been intensely personal (like Amar Singh’s Politics, I daresay). More based on loyalties, petty incidents and sometimes just because the CEO looks like a serial killer. No industry specific PE analysis, Alpha curves, support levels, quality of management etc. I still don’t buy into a famous company involved in fratricidal wars due to a small incident when I was dealing with their textile account in Ahmedabad bank 23 years back. (It deeply shook my sense of self worth: today I would shrug off something like that nonchalantly) Long ago, I sold a huge chunk of Sanghi Polyester (very few people must have heard of it) at its’ highest price since I was running short of cash to visit a dear friend in Lucknow. My friends still wonder how I could time it as sweetly as Gundappa Viswanath's square cut. The company went sick soon after...
Those were days when one couldn’t press a button and sell/buy shares. One passed on instructions to broker and signed blank transfer deeds. Then one went on and engaged in visions of the broker flaying arms and yelling at the top of his voice in the Stock Exchange. One day a phone call is received saying that the sale is done. Then one waits for the cheque. I also sold a huge lot of Reddy’s Laboratories at Rs 50 to part finance a black Hero Honda Motor cycle while working in Ordnance Factory, Trichy. They tell me that if I hadn’t sold that huge chunk then, it would be enough today to import a Toyota Hybrid (with sunroof and paddle shift) and save the planet.
When the Harshad Mehta scam happened, the Govt issued guidelines stating that Govt servants have to declare purchases in Mutual Funds/ Shares above Rs 10000- etc. I sort of decided to stop being in the market for a long time, about ten long years. I reentered in 2003 when the market was in dumps only to see it going up later. I sold all shares in L&T when I realized that they are competitors to companies I deal with administratively. A stupid decision. Actually no one cares. I bought a laptop with that money. If I had waited, I can buy five laptops, three ipods and a Bower and Wilkins Hi Fi system that I lust for with that kind of money). I was seized by visions of the Hero Jack Ryan in the famous Tom Clancy novels. Jack Ryan had to disclose personal information and prove that his investment in certain companies did not constitute a clash of professional interests. Such things happen only in CIA theme novels written by insurance salesmen. They don’t even happen in USA, leave alone India. I have been buying small lots of shares of companies in the Non conventional energy, biotechnology and other futuristic sectors. I see my fortunes see sawing everyday and more often in dumps in these troubled times. At least no one will accuse me of having profited from the share market. Meanwhile the dream ride on the Philips bicycle continues….

Sree...the best of times

It is a hot summer day. I wake up to a detailed commentary by Vasudev Nayar aka Chathu, my 13 year old son, on how the Spaniards dribbled, passed, possessed the ball longer and achieved the impossible in Euro Football last night. He went on to deride the managers of European Clubs for not being good at spotting good talent. As I listen to him sleepily, I wonder how something as inane as the sight of several guys running behind one ball excites him so much. As a Malappuram Muslim (known for their cocky innocence) suggested “ buy them all a ball apiece…..”
It has been good and bad: the past month I mean. I should have been on a sabbatical: for a 9-month course in Delhi from July first onwards. That has been cancelled at the last minute. Here I am, back in South Block, the archetypal middle class Babu suffocating in the hot air being generated all around. I have been nominated for a foreign course for a year (in Australia): keeping my fingers crossed till January 2009 when it is due to start. I had a nice vacation in Kerala. Met folks in Belgaum, Bombay and spent a couple of days in Goa on the way down.
Worse, I lost my cousin Sree to a long bout of cancer ( I call him Kuttetta, and his wife Shobha Chechi). I met him in Bombay a week before he expired. He looked shriveled but was in cheerful spirits. When we met in 2006, I had promised to bring my wife and son to meet him. He was the first one from my immediate family to venture into an inter-faith marriage 24 years back. I still recall those days vividly. My entire “Matrilineal Nair Khandan” closed ranks against it. I was one of the few supporters. A love marriage against societal norms with the Khandan ranged against you sounded incredibly revolutionary and romantic. Truth be told, I was later disappointed to learn that his marriage had a “spiritual package” attached to it. He was marrying Shobha, a South Keralite Christian, but also embracing Christianity whole-heartedly. I always believed that the meeting of two souls had nothing to do with caste/ religion/nationality. My eighties college education and reading of eclectic stuff had hardened my position closer to that of Nehruvians/ Marxists who considered religion a superficial factor in our battle against poverty and illiteracy. I also pitied those who sincerely believed that earth is flat, salvation is available only to those who followed the path of their particular brand of God/ scripture, several virgin/ Houris await the suicide bomber, Genesis is the origin of mankind and prayed that cows and Brahmins are happy and (hence??) the world might be at peace. I am not being cynical here.
Sometime immediately after his marriage in mid eighties, I visited Sree in his small apartment in Parsi dominated neighbourhood in Grant Road. I was on my way to Ahmedabad, where I worked as a probationary officer in Indian Bank. I found the place with some difficulty. I met Shobha for the first time. Spent the day with them. It was my first insight into life in Mumbai. I saw them sharing a drawing room with another family. It was a revelation for someone who lived in large spacious homes in the village. Beneath the stairs I could see a young yuppie couple kissing.( seen that only in Hollywood movies until then) I had lunch with them. I went back and told my folks that Sree is lucky to have a good wife (faith or no faith). I was greeted with a lot of skepticism.
I did visit them again- maybe on my way back from Ahmedabad to Kerala. They were staying in Byculla this time. They had a little Baby, Jonathan. Sree’s migration from Nair Hindu values to Christianity was complete. He also sounded very involved with Church activities and prayers etc. I loved spending time with them but was a bit disappointed with his complete transformation and submission to his God/ religion. I saw this third party ominous presence (God) dominating many of our conversations when he had no business to be there. I saw the whole religion question as external to the choices he made in life. How wrong I was!!
I have always been agnostic. I do visit temples; take part in rituals primarily not to strike out as a sore thumb at family occasions- also not to disappoint my mother who deeply wished God to provide everything best for me. I dreaded the possibility that I may end up defending my position in solemn occasions, spoiling the atmosphere. Hence I never bothered to wear my non-belief on my sleeve. Much that I wish believers would also do the same with their deep convictions and stop imposing them on others. I carry this theory that God is harmless, but religion has killed more people than Atom bombs, wars and natural disasters. ( I could prove that with some statistics) I had debated with Sree on this subject whenever we met. I always told him that some of the biggest crooks I have come across in life are great worshippers of God: their piety in full flow in churches, temples and mosques, not given to sympathy to fellow human beings….
There ensued a long gap to our meetings. I met him briefly in Palakkad for a family function. We came to know that he was affected by cancer of the intestines about two years ago. In between I lost another cousin of mine to breast cancer. From the time she discovered that she was affected till her death, it took her only four months. Sree was a great solace to her. I visited Sree and family in their Vasai Road apartment twice. It was quite some distance from Bombay. Sree had resigned his job sometime prior to surgery. Shobha was working in an NGO with flexitime hours. Jonathan had started working. (I have seen him only as an infant - whenever I visit them, he is away in Office). I felt that each time I visit him, Sree was cheerful but it does something to me. I come back thinking about the strange thing called life and its’ many hues. I could see that Sree and Shobha were involved in many charitable activities, prayer groups, NGOs etc. They earnestly spread the God’s word to bring solace to the destitute and underprivileged. That’s much, much more than what many politicians in this country are doing.
The last words Sree told me were….(Cancer had affected his throat. He had to write in a slip of paper to communicate towards the end) “ Jesus is a person and not a religion for me. I wish you the best this side of heaven…” I was moved to tears. He lived a full life. Had a loving wonderful wife who stood stoically by him and enriched every moment of his life. He raised two great children. He passed on early leaving a grieving family, an inconsolable mother (my mom’s sister) who kept wondering why God had left her to grieve a son who predeceased her. Two sisters, many cousins on our side of the family quietly consoled his mother. His other family consisted of his fellow brethren from his Church community who stood by him resolutely during his last days. Offering prayers, keeping his spirits up. For once I felt religion does many things civil society cannot. In our cities we often do not see what happens in the neighbourhood. In addition to his prayer family, Sree was privileged to have a Doctor couple as neighbours who would check on him every few hours. Cancer is a deadly thing. But Sree and Shobha celebrated his journey through life and his ailment. Never losing their sense of humour. Often they would offer consolation to me. Admittedly, I am too weak hearted to see dear ones in pain.
Sree passed away on 24th June 2008 Morning. I couldn’t be there for the funeral. Shobha said she would like me to be there. I had got back from a long holiday the previous day. Funerals were never my kind of occasions. Nor are marriages or other such joyous occasions. I would have loved to spend time with a living breathing Sree, discussing God and religion. I read a write-up on how his funeral was held from his Church brethren. It sounded great. That here is someone I knew, who lived and loved everything in life and went away with great dignity. I felt proud of him. Of having known him and lived through the best times of life…..