And the PM spoke Mandarin...

First a disclosure- Nothing that I am about to write has anything to do with my not-so-intimate knowledge of the goings on in Government as a lowly Indian Defence Ministry bureaucrat. No, nothing here is a result of my attending Secret meetings or reading classified documents. Y’know it helps to pretend that you are a very knowledgeable insider, especially when you are a highly placed official just freshly transplanted from the water supply department to Defence and know nothing about Defence. You can give these knowledgeable nods, bored and disapproving looks and talk about the time you were in Washington DC with a Finance Ministry delegation on Shrimp exports which had f-kall to do with Defence. If there is one thing I have learnt after spending 19 odd years in Defence Ministry and its’ related organizations, it is that I know very little about it. So there is no competition from me to the water supply guy with pretentious airs. I have spent an entire wasted life in Defence and read a lot of useless stuff on the subject- Which is how I stumbled upon the Cox report, a declassified version of a top secret US House of Representatives select committee report of 1998 on US security concerns with the Peoples Republic of China. You can read it at http://www.house.gov/coxreport/

It is not polite behaviour to write about the politics of the host country. Especially a country so welcoming and which has been good to me so far. And Mandarin is not an easy language to learn. The Chinese characters can take a whole range of different meanings depending on the intonation, rise, and crescendo of every sound emanating from one’s lips. If I were in China, I would have given up on learning Chinese. Maybe I’d just try one liners or amusing conversation like… where is the nearest sex toy shop? Where can I get Chairman Mao memorabilia?....

Kevin Rudd, the Australian PM, has been a diplomat. He learnt Mandarin from the same University where I study ie the Australian National University. He must have painstakingly learnt a tough language to rise in the diplomatic service or to rise in the labor Party with its’ leftist leanings. His intimate knowledge of China and its main language is seen as a major advantage in dealing with a rising power; one that is inextricably linked to the future of the Australian nation. Before going to the G20 he had a hush-hush meeting with a top Chinese Official who apparently influenced him well enough that the PM made a pitch for increased role of China in IMF. Only problem was- the meeting was kept out of the Aussie media while the Chinese papers (maybe the singular; yeah the only main one….) went to town with it.

The Chinese connection doesn’t end there. The newspapers are replete with stories of the Australian Defence Minister’s China links. Fitzgibbon, the young Defence Minister apparently went on a sponsored trip to China (much before he became Defence Minister) and forgot to declare it. He also accepted gifts from his landlady in Canberra who is an Australian National of Chinese origin (the same friend who sponsored his trips to China)- who is also suspected of connections to the Chinese communist party and the PLA. China also relies heavily on Australian coal. They have been making efforts to buy up mines in the country to ensure a steady supply of coal to fuel rapid Chinese growth. The number of Chinese students and tourists to Australia are growing exponentially. Ultimately Australia is a first world country with a third world economy of primary products ie minerals, metals and agricultural products. The contrast with India is unmistakable- India is a third world country with a booming first world service-sector- based economy. For Australia, the Chinese connection is a life line and it means a lot.

There are murmurs of Chinese attempts to access/ tap the Australian PM’s laptop/phone while he was on a trip to China. There are also reports in the media that Australian Intelligence organization is vertically split on the China subject. A part of the setup sees the relationship as a hedging one and a tool to better things; while some see it as a surrender of Australian interests. The china relationship is so keenly watched that the Australian media reports that for the official dinners following G-20 the PM’s staff advised that the PM shouldn’t be seated next to Chinese. Much like one wouldn’t like to be seen in public with someone else that could set tongues wagging- like one’s mistress.

Now the task gets tougher. I shan’t write about China’s military prowess, which is growing enormously- for fear that I may be out of my job if I do that. But we endlessly get to hear about how the Chinese got things right on the growth story while the Indians are bumbling along. How the Chinese are faster at making decisions (it helps to have a single party rule I suppose) and how they have done better to insulate themselves from financial shocks. Australian newspapers had recently splashed pictures of Manmohan Singh and Montek Singh in blue turbans at the G-20 summit with the caption that Indians are happy that slumdog millionaire was doing well despite the recession. What is unsaid is that these two worthies collectively can outclass the best global leadership on matters economic. So we are not in the public eye as far as the Aussie media is concerned. While the Chinese are much so.

There are enough comparisons of the India vs China growth story. Indian growth is driven bottoms up, by companies; Chinese growth is driven by a focused nationalistic Government. The Chinese don’t even like to be compared with India, for they consider themselves in a different league. But the Cox report shows how well the Chinese can penetrate the developed world. Being tickled pink with growth prospects of China and being part of it is one thing. There is an information asymmetry which the developed world needs to be cautious about. While the Chinese can get as much information as they want on the developed world, it isn’t always easy to do so with China. In the long run it is easier to do business with someone you know well and it is easier to know well.

In India, one could buy a postal order of Rs 10 (equivalent princely sum of 30 Aussie cents) and seek information on total Defence spending by the Government of India from the Office of the Defence Secretary or Finance Secretary (only if you are too lazy to glean this figure from Planning Commission and Finance Ministry documents on the cyberspace). You can expect a reply within the month (in spite of not-so-knowledgeable babus). Try to find out from the Chinese….

I rest my case